The FedEx Cup Playoffs are down to just 50 golfers, and the BMW Championship is next up. After absolutely dominating the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, Scottie Scheffler comes into this tournament as the No. 1 player in the FedEx Cup standings and, in my opinion, the clear favorite to win it all. But there are still plenty of other stars looking to make a run, and with only the top 30 players advancing to the Tour Championship, there is a lot on the line at Bellerive Country Club. Here’s what to watch for as the BMW Championship gets underway.

Honestly, what can I even say about Scottie Scheffler that hasn’t been said yet. I mean, he is the best player in the world by a wide margin, he is the most consistent, and he is coming off one of his best performances on Tour ever. He won by 8 strokes last week and that’s including a bad break he had in the 3rd hole that cost him 2 strokes, so he could have potentially won by 10 strokes. He gained 9 strokes putting, his best ever, which means even if he putted a third as good, he would have still won the tournament. So, yes, I don’t see anyone beating him this week, especially if he plays like that, he is going to need to have a pretty bad week for him to not win or at least be in contention come Sunday. So, let’s take a closer view at this week’s course.

A Closer Look at Bellerive Country Club

The BMW Championship is heading to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, and this should be a pretty interesting test for the 50 players in the field. Bellerive is a 7,448-yard par 70, so this isn’t exactly a short course. It also has plenty of history, having hosted the 2018 PGA Championship, where Brooks Koepka won at 16-under.

One of the biggest things to watch this week will be how players handle the course off the tee. Bellerive should favor players who can drive the ball well and then hit their mid-to-long irons accurately. The greens are also something to keep an eye on, with fast Bentgrass greens making good approach shots even more important.

And honestly, this is another reason I like Scottie Scheffler this week. He is one of the best all-around players in the world, and a course that rewards strong driving and iron play seems like a pretty good fit for him. If Scheffler can do what he normally does off the tee and with his approach game, I think he is going to be very difficult to beat.

Scheffler isn’t the only player who should like the look of Bellerive, though. A longer course like this could also play into the hands of some of the bigger hitters in the field. Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland are a few names that immediately come to mind, and all three have the ability to take advantage of a course where driving and strong approach play are so important. There are also some other players who could surprise us this week, which makes the field behind Scheffler pretty interesting. However, I still think everyone else will be playing for second place.

Yes, there are players who drive the ball better or farther than Scottie, but he is the best all-around player, and arguably also the best iron player, so as long as his ball striking is at his usual level, and he can putt decent, he won’t have any troubles. Rory is obviously one of the favorites as well, since it’s a longer course and he is known for his long drives, but we saw how he struggled last week, and he seemed to be a bit rusty and struggling with his irons. I don’t see Rory winning this week, I think he has a better chance next week when he is more in a groove for playing a couple weeks in a row.

Players to Watch

Viktor Hovland

Another guy I think is worth watching is Viktor Hovland. He’s currently 22nd in the FedEx Cup standings and is coming into a course where his ball-striking could really help him. Hovland has always been one of the better players when it comes to hitting his irons, and on a 7,448-yard course, that could be a huge advantage. He probably isn’t the first name most people will pick to win this tournament, but I think he has a real chance to make a run.

Adam Scott

Adam Scott is probably the most interesting name on this list for me. He already has some good history at Bellerive, finishing tied for third at the 2018 PGA Championship, and he’s back at the course this week sitting 27th in the FedEx Cup standings. He’s also coming into the BMW with a lot to play for, because a strong finish could help secure his spot in the top 30 heading into the Tour Championship. I’m not saying Scott is going to win, but if you’re looking for a guy outside the biggest names who could have a really good week, I’d keep an eye on him.

Chris Gotterup

Chris Gotterup is probably my favorite player to watch outside of the obvious names in this field. Gotterup has already won three times this season, so it’s not like we’re talking about some random long shot. He has the length to take advantage of Bellerive, and he’s shown throughout the year that he can compete with the best players on Tour. He finished T11 at the Scottish Open and T18 at The Open earlier this summer, so I think he’s got a really good chance to make some noise this week. If you’re looking for someone who could challenge Scottie without being one of the first names that comes to mind, Gotterup is my guy.

The Battle for the Top 30

While Scottie Scheffler and the other players near the top of the standings are looking to win the BMW Championship, there is a completely different battle happening at the other end of the field. Only the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings will make it to next week’s TOUR Championship at East Lake, meaning the 20 players ranked 31st through 50th are fighting to keep their seasons alive. Some of them only need a solid week, while others are going to need to play some really good golf to have a chance.

Here is what each player needs to do at Bellerive to move into the top 30:

FedEx Cup Rank	Player	Minimum Finish
31	Gary Woodland	Solo 48th
32	J.T. Poston	Solo 31st
33	Nicolai Højgaard	Three-way T-18
34	Alex Noren	Solo 17th
35	Jake Knapp	Three-way T-16
36	Robert MacIntyre	Three-way T-15
37	Aaron Rai	Solo 12th
38	Ben Griffin	Solo 11th
39	Sepp Straka	Solo 11th
40	Sungjae Im	Solo 8th
41	Michael Thorbjornsen	Solo 8th
42	Nico Echavarria	Two-way T-7
43	Patrick Cantlay	Solo 7th
44	Justin Thomas	Solo 7th
45	Ryo Hisatsune	Three-way T-2
46	Sahith Theegala	Three-way T-2
47	Michael Brennan	Two-way T-2
48	Eric Cole	Two-way T-2
49	Maverick McNealy	Two-way T-2
50	Matt McCarty	Solo 2nd

The closer you get to 50th, the more difficult the road to East Lake becomes. Gary Woodland, for example, only needs to finish 48th, while Matt McCarty needs a solo second-place finish just to have a chance. There are also some pretty big names in this group, including Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and Sahith Theegala, so this part of the BMW Championship should be really fun to watch.

For some of these players, one bad round could basically end their season. For others, a great finish could completely change their FedExCup outlook. That’s what makes this week so important for the players outside the top 30.

So, Who Wins?

I’m going with Scottie Scheffler. Honestly, I don’t think there’s really much of a debate for me. Scheffler has been one of the most consistent players in the world for years, and after what he did at the St. Jude Championship last week, I think he’s back to his best. He absolutely destroyed the field in Memphis, winning by eight shots, and now he gets to come to Bellerive as the defending BMW Championship winner.

When you combine his consistency, his all-around game and the way he’s playing right now, it’s really hard for me to pick anyone else. He can drive it, he can hit his irons, he can scramble and, when the putter is working, he can completely run away from a tournament. We just saw that happen last week, and I think we’re going to see something similar this week.

So, in my mind, the real battle is for second place. I just don’t see anybody beating Scottie if he plays anywhere close to the way he did at St. Jude. My pick for second is Chris Gotterup. Gotterup has already won three times this season and has shown that he has the length and game to compete with the best players in the world. I think Bellerive suits him really well, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he ends up being the guy chasing Scottie on Sunday.

My pick: Scottie Scheffler

Second place: Chris Gotterup

If I’m right, we could be looking at another Scottie Scheffler runaway. And honestly, after what we saw last week, I’m not sure anyone in this field is going to be able to stop him.

At the end of the day, I think this tournament is Scottie’s to lose. Bellerive fits his game, he’s coming off an unbelievable performance at St. Jude, and right now I just don’t see anyone playing better than him. The rest of the field is going to have to prove me wrong.

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