Alright, the Eagles, and I know saying they’re going to be bad after winning a Super Bowl not that long ago sounds crazy, but hear me out, because I genuinely think this is the year they finally come back down to earth.

Let’s start with the recap. Philadelphia went 11-6 last year, won the division again to become the first team to repeat as NFC East champs in over two decades, but as the defending Super Bowl champions, the whole season has to be viewed through the lens of how it ended, and it ended badly. They lost their Wild Card game to the 49ers, 23-19, going one and done as defending champs, which is a genuinely disappointing outcome no matter how you spin the regular season record around it.

Now here’s where I want to make my actual case, because I think Nick Sirianni gets way more credit than he deserves, and a big part of that is because he’s essentially been a coordinator merchant this entire time. Think about it, since he became head coach, he’s churned through offensive coordinators almost every single year, Shane Steichen left to become the Colts’ head coach, and Kellen Moore won a Super Bowl with this team and immediately left to become the Saints’ head coach. And here’s the part that actually proves my whole point, Kevin Patullo, who took over after Moore left, got fired after just one season because the offense completely fell off a cliff, finishing 19th in scoring and 24th in total yards, both the worst marks of Sirianni’s entire tenure as head coach. So it wasn’t that the offense was actually fine and Sirianni just lost his guy again, the offense sucked because the guy calling plays wasn’t good enough, and Sirianni had to clean it up himself. Now they’ve brought in Sean Mannion, a former backup quarterback who was the Packers’ quarterbacks coach last year, to be Jalen Hurts’ seventh different play caller in seven NFL seasons. Seven. That’s not a coach with a stable offensive system, that’s a coach who keeps hoping the next hire figures it out for him.

And speaking of that roster, it took some real hits this offseason. The biggest one by far is A.J. Brown, who’s gone, traded away after persistent rumors all offseason. That’s their most explosive receiver, someone Jalen Hurts has leaned on in the biggest moments for years, and now he’s just not walking through that door anymore. To replace that kind of production, they’re leaning on a rookie in Makai Lemon, taken 20th overall after trading up with the Cowboys, plus one-year rental signings in Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore, and a trade for Dontayvion Wicks from the Packers. That’s a whole lot of new faces and unproven chemistry replacing one of the most dangerous receivers in the league, and I don’t think that’s a seamless transition no matter how talented Lemon looked at USC.

On top of that, the offensive line, which has been the backbone of this entire offense and the thing that made Saquon Barkley’s historic 2024 season possible, is dealing with real age and durability questions. Both Lane Johnson and Landon Dickerson reportedly flirted with retirement this offseason, and even if they’re both still suiting up, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of where that group is physically at this stage of their careers.

Defensively, they also lost real pieces. Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, who they traded a third-round pick for at last year’s deadline and who played well down the stretch, walked in free agency instead of sticking around long-term. Linebacker Nakobe Dean, who was coming back from a torn patellar tendon, also left. To help fill those gaps they traded for edge rusher Jonathan Greenard from the Vikings and signed cornerback Riq Woolen on a one-year deal to pair with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Vic Fangio is still there running the show, and Zack Baun and Jalen Carter give this defense a real foundation, so I don’t think it completely collapses, but it’s not the same complete unit it was during the Super Bowl run either.

And I have to bring up Jalen Hurts himself here too, because I just don’t think he’s the passer people want to pretend he is. Last year he averaged only 7.1 yards per attempt, which ranked 27th in the league, and his average depth of target was one of the lowest among starters, meaning a ton of his completions are short checkdowns rather than him actually pushing the ball downfield. He had a stinker of a playoff performance too, completing 20 of 35 for just 168 yards in that Wild Card loss. What he’s really good at is running the ball himself and getting shoved into the end zone on the tush push, which I still think is the worst, most boring play in football even if I get why it works. But a passing offense that leans that heavily on quarterback runs and short-yardage sneaks instead of an actual downfield passing attack is exactly the kind of thing that stops bailing you out once the receivers and the O-line in front of you aren’t elite anymore.

So when I add all of this up, here’s what I see. A head coach who’s now on his fourth offensive coordinator hire in five years after firing the last guy for running the offense into the ground. A quarterback who’s more of a runner than an actual downfield thrower at this point, leaning on a gimmick sneak play more than a real passing attack. A receiver room that lost its best player and replaced him with a rookie and a bunch of one-year rentals still building chemistry with Hurts. An offensive line dealing with legitimate retirement speculation from two of its anchors. And a defense that lost a productive pass rusher and a linebacker even while keeping its core intact. None of these are disqualifying on their own, but stack them all together and you get a team that I think is finally due for a real step back after riding a very specific formula for a few years now.

I don’t think this is some kind of total collapse, this roster still has Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley when healthy, and a defensive mind in Fangio that keeps things respectable even in a down year. But I think the margins that used to bail this team out, the elite receiver duo, the dominant offensive line, the top-ranked defense, have all gotten just thin enough this offseason that the results finally catch up to the process. This finally feels like the year the Eagles are just a mid football team instead of a contender, and I think Sirianni’s reputation takes a real hit when it happens.

I also think the division works against them a little here too. I’ve got the Commanders bouncing back in a big way if Jayden Daniels stays healthy, and the Cowboys actually put together a real defensive overhaul of their own this offseason, so this isn’t a division where Philadelphia can just show up and collect wins by default anymore. Everybody else got better or at least stayed the same, while the Eagles are the team that actually took a step back on paper, and I think that shows up in the standings by the time the season is over.

My prediction is the Eagles finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs entirely this year. That’s a real fall from being defending Super Bowl champs just two years removed, but I think it’s exactly what happens when you keep losing your best coordinators and your best playmakers and try to paper over it every single offseason.

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