The season is finally here, and I’ve got picks for every single game on the Sunday slate. Let’s get into it, game by game.

Steelers over Falcons, 20-13

This one actually got even more lopsided than I initially thought. Atlanta was already dealing with a shaky quarterback situation, but now Tua Tagovailoa is out with an oblique injury he suffered in practice this week, Michael Penix Jr. still isn’t ready to go as he continues working back from his torn ACL, so Cooper Rush is starting instead. Rush is a fine backup in a pinch, but he’s not walking into Pittsburgh and beating a Steelers team that should be better defensively, especially in Mike McCarthy’s debut as head coach. I like Pittsburgh to control this one from start to finish.

Bengals over Buccaneers, 27-20

Cincinnati’s offense is a completely different animal when Joe Burrow is healthy and available, and by all accounts everybody’s good to go for this one. Tampa Bay’s offense is the real question mark here, they had real struggles down the stretch last year, and I think Cincinnati’s firepower is just too much to keep up with in a shootout.

Saints over Lions, 31-24

I’m genuinely high on New Orleans this year, and I think this is the game where people start to notice why. Detroit’s offense is still going to be good, but I don’t trust that defense after everything that fell apart there this offseason, and I think Tyler Shough and this retooled Saints offense take advantage in a track meet.

Bears over Panthers, 34-17

I don’t think this one’s particularly close. Chicago’s offense should be humming behind Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson in year two of that partnership, and I’m just not sold on Carolina as a team yet, last year’s playoff berth was more about a weak division than a genuinely complete roster. I think the Bears jump on them early and never look back.

Titans over Jets, 20-17

The Jets are the Jets, and until Geno Smith proves otherwise, I’m not betting on that offense to go win a game outright. Tennessee’s got a real, meaningful upgrade at head coach and offensive coordinator this year with Brian Callahan’s replacement Robert Saleh running the show and Brian Daboll calling plays, and I think both sides of the ball look a little sharper than they did a year ago. Cam Ward should have an easier time operating behind better structure, and I think that’s enough to get Tennessee a win here.

Ravens over Colts, 31-20

Baltimore with a fully healthy Lamar Jackson and a new coaching staff should be a real problem for everybody this year, and Indianapolis is coming off a historic collapse last season that I don’t think they’ve fully fixed. I don’t see the Colts hanging with this Ravens team for four quarters.

Jaguars over Browns, 27-10

I don’t think I need to spend much time on this one. Cleveland’s quarterback situation remains a genuine mess no matter who ends up under center, and Jacksonville is coming off a 13-win season with real continuity on both sides of the ball. This should be a comfortable win for the Jaguars.

Texans over Bills, 20-17

This one should be tight. Buffalo is breaking in a new head coach, Joe Brady, who got promoted from offensive coordinator after Sean McDermott was let go this offseason, and there’s always a little bit of an adjustment period any time a new voice takes over, even one who’s already been in the building. Houston’s defense was one of the best in the league last year and I don’t think that changes much, so I like them to make just enough plays to escape with a close road win.

Chargers over Cardinals, 38-17

This should not be close. Arizona’s defense is going to be one of the worst in the league this year and their quarterback situation isn’t inspiring much confidence either, while the Chargers have real talent and a genuinely creative mind in Mike McDaniel calling plays now. I think Los Angeles puts up points early and often in this one.

Commanders over Eagles, 26-23

This has the makings of a fun, tight divisional game. I think Jayden Daniels is primed for a big year if he can stay healthy behind a retooled offensive line, and I’ve made the case all offseason that I think Philadelphia takes a real step back this year. I like Washington to go into Philly and steal this one on the road.

Packers over Vikings, 24-21

Minnesota’s got a brand new quarterback situation with Kyler Murray taking over, and there’s always going to be some rust and uncertainty in a Week 1 start with a new system. Green Bay’s got more continuity in place even with their own coordinator change on defense, and I think that extra bit of readiness is enough to get them a close win here.

Dolphins over Raiders, 24-20

I think Miami surprises some people in this one. It’s a totally new era down there, new GM, new head coach in Jeff Hafley, and a fresh start at quarterback with Malik Willis getting the first crack at the job after the team moved on from Tua this offseason. I think the run game carries a lot of the load early and Willis manages the game well enough to get a win, especially with Las Vegas missing Brock Bowers, their best offensive weapon, after his knee procedure this week. I like Miami to pull off a mild surprise here.

Sunday Night Football: Cowboys over Giants, 28-21

I like Dallas a lot this year, genuinely improved defense to go with an offense that was already elite, and I think that shows up right away here. New York’s got a new head coach in John Harbaugh trying to establish a new identity, and I think that takes some time to fully click. I’ll take the Cowboys to open the season with a win under the lights.

That’s the full slate. We’ll see how many of these actually hold up once the games are actually played, but that’s where I’m at heading into Week 1. And honestly, that’s the fun part too, this is the NFL, and it’s cliche at this point but it’s cliche for a reason, any given Sunday truly anything can happen. That goes double for Week 1, when nobody’s actually played a real game yet and half these predictions are really just educated guesses dressed up as confidence. Enjoy the football everybody.

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