The Marlins head to Phoenix for a three-game set against the Diamondbacks, and let’s be honest about where things stand. Miami is 74-76, sitting 7.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot with only 12 games left to play. It’s about as close to mathematically dead as you can get without actually being eliminated. If the Marlins are somehow serious about making a real push, this has to start with a sweep here, and even that would need a lot of winning the rest of the way plus a good amount of help from other teams.

Arizona, meanwhile, is very much alive in the playoff race themselves at 79-71, just 1.5 games out of that final Wild Card spot, though they’ve dropped two straight coming into this series. Miami arrives on a modest two-game winning streak of its own after taking the series from the Dodgers, so this isn’t going to be an easy three games for either side.

Game 1: Sandy vs Burnes

Monday it’s Sandy Alcantara against Corbin Burnes, who’s making his return to Arizona’s rotation. Sandy has really struggled lately, allowing 15 earned runs across his last three starts combined, including getting completely rocked by the Mets in his most recent outing, giving up 7 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in just 4.1 innings. That’s not the version of Sandy the Marlins need right now, and if he’s serious about helping this team make any kind of push, he needs to look like the guy who was so good for most of the summer, not the guy who’s shown up his last three times out.

Game 2: Junk vs Soroka

Tuesday it’s Janson Junk against Michael Soroka, who’s stepping back into Arizona’s rotation now that Zac Gallen has been moved to the bullpen. Soroka’s quietly had a nice season for the Diamondbacks, sitting with an ERA in the low 3s and a career revival going after bouncing around a few organizations the last couple years. Junk has had his ups and downs all year, so this is a spot where Miami’s offense is going to need to be sharp early against a pitcher who’s earned his rotation spot back.

Game 3: Gusto vs Kelly

Wednesday it’s Ryan Gusto against Merrill Kelly. Kelly’s had a rough go of it for most of 2026, hovering around a 5 ERA and dealing with the kind of traffic and hard contact that’s made it tough for him to string together clean outings, so this is probably the most favorable matchup on paper for Miami all series. Gusto’s been solid more often than not lately too, so if there’s a game in this set the Marlins should target, it’s this one.

No room for anything but clean baseball

If the Marlins actually want to make this thing interesting, every single part of the game needs to show up at the same time, and that has not happened nearly enough this year. The starting pitching needs to get back to being good, hopefully starting with Sandy snapping out of it. The offense needs to keep hitting the way it has in stretches. And on top of both of those things, there’s simply no room left for the mental mistakes, the base running blunders, the defensive errors, all the stuff that’s derailed good performances all season long. Complementary baseball, everyone doing their job on the same night, is the only way Miami gives itself any kind of chance here.

Prediction

Given the state of the pitching and how unlikely this whole push already is, I’m not going to pretend I’m confident, so I’ll say the Marlins take 1 of 3. Anything better than that would be a pleasant surprise at this point.

#FightinFish

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