Let’s talk about the Chiefs, because after a decade of basically total dominance, last year was genuinely jarring to watch, and this offseason feels like a real reset back toward who they actually are.

The recap. Kansas City finished 6-11, missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade and snapping their nine-year AFC West title streak. The wild part is how it happened, they went from a perfect 10-0 in one-score games back in 2024 to basically the opposite last year, and Mahomes himself went 1-7 in those tight contests before his season ended early. Then in Week 15 against the Chargers, Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL scrambling for a first down, officially ending both his season and any remaining hope of a late playoff push. It was the first season-ending injury of his career, and it capped off a year where the offense finished 20th in total yards and 21st in points, which is basically unthinkable for a team we’ve come to expect to be the best in football every single year.

Now here’s the thing everybody’s talking about, and I actually think it’s a bigger deal than people are giving it credit for, Eric Bieniemy is back as offensive coordinator. He was the OC during the peak of this dynasty from 2018 to 2022, when this offense was consistently the most explosive and terrifying unit in football and they won two Super Bowls with him calling plays alongside Reid. Since he left, the offense has genuinely never looked the same, it dipped hard under his replacement and never fully got back to that level. I think getting him back in the building, reunited with Mahomes and Kelce, is a much bigger deal for fixing this offense than people are treating it as, and I expect a real jump in identity and execution just from that change alone.

And of course the other massive piece of this is Mahomes himself coming back from that ACL and LCL tear. When healthy, he’s still the best quarterback in football, full stop, and I think we saw last year exactly what this team looks like without him, a totally different, lesser version of itself. If he’s back to being himself, and I have no reason to think he won’t be given how these guys usually recover these days, I think this offense snaps right back into being one of the scariest units in the league, especially with Bieniemy back to actually scheme it up the way he used to.

On the weapons side, the Chiefs made a real splash signing running back Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, on a three-year, $43 million deal. That’s a legitimate difference-maker in the backfield, and paired with Bieniemy’s track record of getting the most out of his running backs, I think this run game looks completely different than it has in years. Add in some fresh rookie faces mixed into the receiving corps and Travis Kelce still around, and there’s real juice here on offense heading into this season.

Speaking of Kelce, he re-signed on a three-year deal worth up to $54.7 million, and even in what a lot of people called a down year, he still caught 76 passes for 851 yards and 5 touchdowns, which for most tight ends in the league would be a career year. I don’t think he’s cooked, I just think the whole offense underperformed around him, and with Bieniemy back and presumably scheming him open more effectively, I expect Kelce to look more like himself again too.

Now let’s get into the defense, because you’re right, they did lose Trent McDuffie, and that one genuinely surprised me when I looked into it. They traded him to the Rams for a package that included the 29th overall pick, plus additional picks in future drafts. They also lost cornerback Jaylen Watson and safety Bryan Cook in free agency, so that’s a real chunk of proven secondary talent walking out the door. To replace some of it, they signed safety Alohi Gilman on a three-year deal, cornerback Kader Kohou, and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, and then used that draft capital from the McDuffie trade to grab two first-round picks on defense, cornerback Mansoor Delane out of LSU and defensive tackle Peter Woods. It’s honestly a smart, calculated way to reload a unit that was actually still a top-10 defense last year even while the offense was falling apart around it, so I don’t think this side of the ball collapses, I just think there’s a bit more uncertainty here than usual with McDuffie gone.

So here’s where I land. I think this team gets back to being an elite, terrifying version of itself, mostly because I trust Mahomes to bounce back to being himself and I think Bieniemy coming back fixes a lot of what’s been quietly broken about this offense the last few years. The defense took a real hit losing McDuffie, but they were smart about replacing that talent and it should still be solid. The Broncos are clearly the other real contender in this division, and I think this comes down to a genuinely tight race between the two of them all year.

My prediction is the Chiefs finish 13-4 and win the AFC West back, and honestly I wouldn’t be shocked if that record is good enough for the number one seed in the entire AFC. As long as Mahomes looks like Mahomes again, I think this team is right back to being the team nobody wants to see in January.

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