After that gut punch of a series against the Red Sox, the Marlins are on the road again for a four-game set against the Nationals in Washington, starting tonight. Let’s recap quickly and then get into what to watch for.

A quick look back at Boston

Not going to relive the whole thing again since I already ranted about it enough, but the short version is the Marlins lost the first two games of that series because they simply could not hit with runners in scoring position and kept giving away outs on the bases. It cost them chances to blow games open and it cost them the series lead.

But credit where it’s due, they didn’t let it turn into a sweep. Miami bounced back in the finale with a 4-0 win, and that game was really a story of two things: Ryan Gusto was excellent, going 5.2 shutout innings against a lineup that had been rolling, and Boston completely fell apart in the field, committing four errors that Miami made them pay for. Great pitching plus a team beating itself is a formula that works, and the Marlins took full advantage. Good way to avoid the sweep, now let’s see if they can carry some of that momentum into DC.

Game 1: Eury Perez vs Jackson Kent

Tonight it’s Eury Perez against Jackson Kent, and this is about as favorable a matchup as the Marlins are going to get all series. Eury has been outstanding lately, sporting a 2.25 ERA over his last six starts, and he already beat Washington earlier this month, allowing just two runs over five innings. Kent, on the other hand, has been rough, an 8.03 ERA on the season, and he’s a guy the Marlins need to be aggressive against early before he settles in, if he ever does. This is a game Miami should win if Eury is anywhere close to the version we’ve seen recently.

Game 2: Sandy Alcantara vs Cade Cavalli

Saturday’s matchup is Sandy against Cade Cavalli, and this one is trickier than it looks on paper given the Nationals’ record. Cavalli has quietly been really good, 12-5 with a 3.21 ERA and 169 strikeouts, so this isn’t the free pass some of Washington’s other arms have been this year. Sandy has been strong himself, sitting at 13-8 with a 3.38 ERA, so this should be a good pitcher’s duel. Honestly, this feels like the toughest pitching matchup of the series for Miami, even more than the finale.

Game 3: Junk (probably) vs Andrew Alvarez

Sunday’s Marlins starter isn’t officially announced yet, but it’s probably Janson Junk, even though he was just used out of the bullpen a few days ago. Washington is going with lefty Andrew Alvarez, who’s been just okay this year at 2-6 with a 3.72 ERA. If it is Junk, and he’s been really good lately, he should have a real chance here if the offense shows up.

Game 4: Phillips (probably) vs TBD

Monday’s series finale doesn’t have any starters confirmed on either side, but Tyler Phillips is probably in line to get the ball for Miami. Washington’s starter is still TBD as of now.

The real issue isn’t the pitching

Here’s the thing that’s been true for weeks now and it was true again in Boston: the Marlins’ rotation is not the problem. Eury, Sandy, Janson and even Gusto have all been on heaters recently, and if this staff keeps pitching the way it has, Miami should be competitive in pretty much every game they play. The issue continues to be the offense, specifically not being able to get a hit with runners in scoring position and making dumb mistakes on the bases that kill innings before they even get going. We saw both of those things cost them games this past series, and until that gets fixed, these guys are going to keep leaving a lot of runs on the table even with good starts behind them.

Prediction

I think the Marlins take this one 3-1. I like them tonight with Eury on the mound against a struggling Kent, I think Sandy finds a way to outduel Cavalli on Saturday even though that’s the tightest matchup of the series, and I like them again on Sunday too. I think they drop the finale on Monday.

Let’s go get a series win in DC. #FightinFish

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