Alright, the Cowboys, and yeah, I know, there’s always so much hype and noise around this team every single year, half of it delusional. But honestly, I actually think there’s a real case for them being pretty good this season, so let’s dig into why.

The recap first. Dallas finished 7-9-1 last year, missing the playoffs for the second straight season under first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer. And the weird part is, the offense was legitimately great, Dak Prescott led the entire NFL in passing yards, and they had a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard running back in Javonte Williams, and two 1,000-yard receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, only the second time in franchise history they’ve had that combination. The problem was the defense, which was an outright disaster, allowing the most points in franchise history at 30.1 per game and recording the fewest interceptions in franchise history too. You just can’t overcome a defense that bad no matter how good your offense is, and it cost defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus his job after just one season.

Now let’s talk about the Micah Parsons trade, because I know a lot of people, myself included at the time, thought this move looked pretty rough when it happened right before last season. Dallas sent Parsons to Green Bay for two first-round picks and defensive tackle Kenny Clark, and predictably, the defense fell apart without their best player. But here’s the thing, looking at it now with a full year of hindsight, I actually think this trade ends up looking pretty smart for Dallas. They used one of those two first-round picks, plus a second-rounder and Mazi Smith, to trade for Quinnen Williams from the Jets at the deadline, and he gave their run defense an immediate jolt in his short time with the team. Then, with the other first-round pick still in hand, they went out this April and grabbed safety Caleb Downs at number 11, who a lot of personnel evaluators considered the best overall player in the entire draft class. So when you tally it all up, the Cowboys turned Parsons into Kenny Clark, Quinnen Williams, and Caleb Downs. That’s a genuinely strong return, especially for a defense that desperately needed talent at multiple levels instead of just one dominant edge rusher trying to cover for everybody else.

To go along with landing Downs, the Cowboys hired Christian Parker as their new defensive coordinator, a Vic Fangio disciple who spent the last two years with the Eagles, and he’s switching this defense over to a 3-4 base look. Players are already raving about the culture and attention to detail he’s bringing, which is a nice change of pace after the disaster that was last year’s unit.

They also locked up Quinnen Williams long-term this offseason, signing him to a three-year, $105.9 million extension to make sure he’s the centerpiece of this defensive rebuild through 2030, and he’s got Kenny Clark right next to him up front, giving them a legitimately strong interior duo. To fix the pass rush that cratered without Parsons, they traded with Green Bay again, this time for edge rusher Rashan Gary, who actually played alongside Parsons last year, so there’s some familiarity built in there. They also added cornerback Cobie Durant and safety Jalen Thompson in free agency to shore up a secondary that had basically nothing going for it last season.

The draft continued that same defensive-first approach, using six of their seven picks on that side of the ball. Along with Downs at 11, they took edge rusher Malachi Lawrence out of UCF at pick 23, added linebacker Jaishawn Barham in the third round via a trade involving Osa Odighizuwa, who they ended up moving to the 49ers after he didn’t fit Parker’s new scheme, and grabbed cornerback Devin Moore in the fourth round. Their only real offensive pick in the whole class was tackle Drew Shelton, which tells you exactly where their priorities were this offseason.

So here’s where I land on all of this. The offense doesn’t need much explaining, it’s already one of the best units in football with Dak, Lamb, Pickens, and Javonte Williams all still in place, and I don’t see any reason that unit takes a step back. The real question all year is going to be the defense, but I actually feel pretty good about it heading in. You’ve got a genuine talent upgrade at basically every level, Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark up front, Rashan Gary added to the pass rush, Caleb Downs and a retooled secondary in the back end, and a real defensive mind in Christian Parker running the whole thing instead of a coordinator who clearly wasn’t getting the job done. That’s a completely different foundation than what fell apart last year, and I think it shows up in a meaningfully improved scoring defense this season.

Of course, this is still the NFC East, and I actually think the Eagles finally take a real step back this year after two straight division titles, so I don’t see them as the real roadblock anymore. The Commanders feel like the bigger threat to me, they look like the team most likely to actually win this division. But between an offense that’s already elite and a defense that got a legitimate overhaul instead of just a band-aid, I think this team is genuinely built to take a real step forward and compete for a playoff spot, not just talk about it like they usually do.

There’s also just the general Cowboys of it all to consider, the circus that follows this team every single year regardless of how good or bad the roster actually is. Jerry Jones is never shy about the cameras, there’s always some contract drama swirling somewhere on the roster, and the outside noise around this franchise never really quiets down no matter what’s happening on the field. None of that changes this year, but for once I think the actual substance behind the roster might be catching up to the hype instead of falling short of it like it usually does.

My prediction is the Cowboys finish 11-6 and actually win a playoff game this year. I know Cowboys predictions always come with some baggage attached given how this fanbase and this front office tend to talk themselves up every offseason, but I think the volume of real defensive investment this time, on top of an offense that never really was the problem, gives them a legitimate shot to back it up for once.

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