The Marlins are on the road in Kansas City for a three-game set starting tonight, and at this point in the season, this really does feel like a do-or-die stretch. Miami sits at 69-69, four games back of the Padres for the final Wild Card spot, with only 24 games left to play. There just isn’t any more room for the kind of mistakes that have plagued this team all year.

It doesn’t help that the Marlins haven’t been playing their best baseball lately either, having dropped 5 of their last 7. And this isn’t an easy spot to try to turn that around, Kansas City is red hot right now, winners of five straight series and riding a seven-game home winning streak. Add in that Miami has been brutal on the road all season at 27-42, and this series is shaping up to be a real measuring stick for how serious this playoff push actually is.

Game 1: Phillips vs Dobnak

Tonight it’s Tyler Phillips against Randy Dobnak, and this is a tough matchup for Miami on paper. Phillips has struggled as a starter for most of the year, sitting at 3-6 with a 3.59 ERA, while Dobnak has been excellent for Kansas City with a 1.92 ERA. Phillips needs to find a way to keep the Marlins in this one, because if he doesn’t, this lineup is going to have to do a lot of work against a pitcher who’s been really tough to hit.

Game 2: Eury Perez vs Noah Cameron

Wednesday’s matchup is Eury against Noah Cameron, and after the rough start he had against Washington, Eury needs to get back to the version of himself we saw for most of August, when he was sitting at a 2.38 ERA since returning from his thigh strain. He’s better than that one bad outing, and this is exactly the kind of series where the Marlins need him to prove it. Cameron is no pushover either though, he’s been the best pitcher in this rotation lately, running a 1.29 ERA since late July, so the Marlins are going to have to figure something out and hope Eury gives them a chance.

Game 3: Sandy Alcantara vs Michael Wacha

Thursday it’s Sandy against Michael Wacha, and just like Eury, Sandy is looking to bounce back from a bad outing of his own against the Nationals. The overall season number is a very respectable 3.46 ERA, but it’s worth remembering he was running a 1.76 ERA in August before that one rough start, so the talent and the recent form are both there. Wacha has been solid for Kansas City all year at 8-8 with a 3.32 ERA, and he’s coming off a double-digit strikeout game in his last start, so this won’t be easy either.

What needs to change

Look, the pitching staff has actually been really good for most of the last month, and I expect Eury and Sandy to bounce back from their recent hiccups. The real issue continues to be everything else. This offense needs to finally start hitting with runners in scoring position instead of stranding guys all over the bases, and this team has to cut out the base running blunders and the errors that have cost them multiple games recently. There is zero margin for error left at this point in the season, four games back with 24 to go means every single mistake matters, and Miami simply cannot keep beating itself and expect to make up ground on a team like San Diego.

Prediction

Given how well Kansas City has been playing at home and how bad Miami has been on the road, I’m not overly confident here, but I still think the Marlins can take 2 out of 3. I like Eury and Sandy to bounce back and get the Marlins the last two games of the series, but I think they drop the opener tonight with Phillips on the mound against a red-hot Dobnak.

Let’s go get a much needed series win. #FightinFish

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